-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI US Inflation Insight: Progress But Caution Still Needed
MNI Weekly: Latest Sanctions Showing Sharp Early Response
MNI: Fed's Williams Still Sees Work To Be Done On Inflation
MNI STATE OF PLAY: RBNZ To Hike 50bps, Still Has Work To Do
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hike rates for an eighth consecutive meeting on Oct 5 after Governor Adrian Orr warned earlier last week that policymakers “still have some work to do”.
The Official Cash Rate is expected to be raised 50bps to 3.5%, the highest since early-2015, as the Bank seeks to return inflation to the midpoint of its 1-3% target band. CPI rose at a 7.3% y/y pace in the June quarter.
The accompanying statement is expected to reiterate many of the concerns cited in August’s hawkish Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) given that growth of 1.7% in the June quarter was broadly in-line with the Bank’s forecasts, inflation continues to stalk the economy, the jobs market remains tight, and wages are rising. The MPS said inflation was “too high” and labour “remains scarce”.
Governor Orr said on Sept 27 that the Bank’s tightening cycle was “very mature” and “well advanced”. However, he caveated these remarks by adding that policymakers “still have some work to do”, comments reflected in market pricing for a terminal rate of 4.75% in 2023. August’s MPS forecast an average 4.1% OCR in 2023. (See MNI BRIEF: RBNZ’s Orr Says Tightening Cycle “Very Mature”).
More than six weeks after the MPS, inflation pressures remain elevated. Firms’ pricing intentions are running at three times the 1992-2020 average, according to the monthly ANZ New Zealand Business Outlook survey. Around 68% of firms intend to raise prices over the next three months and inflation expectations are running at 6%.
The labour market remains tight and wages are rising. There was a 0.4% increase in monthly jobs filled in August, lifting the y/y rate to 2.3% from 2.2%. The employment sub-index of the BNZ- BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose to 53.6 in August, the highest since September 2021. Job ads remain elevated.
Complicating the Bank’s attempts to get inflation back within its 1-3% band is the weak NZ dollar, which is hovering near its lowest against the U.S. dollar since 2009. Exports rose 26% y/y in August, underwritten by an 89% y/y rise in dairy exports, according to Stats NZ.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.