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MNI Survey Of China Economic Forecasts

MNI (Singapore)
     BEIJING (MNI) - All figures y/y percentage change unless otherwise
specified 
                                            New Loans        TSF
                         CPI  PPI       M2        Nov        Nov
                         Nov  Nov  End-Nov  (CNY Bln)  (CNY Bln)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median                   1.8  5.8      8.9      800.0     1290.0
High                     2.0  7.0      9.2        979       1847
Low                      1.5  5.5      8.7      660.0      900.0
Mean                     1.8  5.9      8.9      814.9     1299.4
No.                       21   21       19         20         13
Previous                 1.9  6.9      8.8      663.2       1040
ANZ                       na   na       na         na         na
BAML                     1.9  5.7      9.0      800.0     1400.0
Bank of Comm             1.8  5.6      9.1        850         na
CICC                     1.9  5.8      9.0    800-850  1000-1100
Guohai Sec               1.8  5.8       na      850.0         na
Guotai Junan Securities  1.8  5.7      8.7      750.0      900.0
HSBC                     1.5  6.1      9.2        800       1067
Huachuang Sec            1.8  6.0      8.9        800         na
Huatai Sec               1.8  5.8      9.0        900       1500
Industrial Bank          1.6  5.8      8.9        800       1250
ING                      1.5  6.5      9.0        795         na
Merchants Sec            2.0  5.8      9.0        660        900
Minsheng Research        1.9  5.9      9.0        800         na
Mizuho                   1.7  5.5      8.9        750
Moody's                  1.8  6.3       na         na         na
Morgan Stanley           1.9  6.0      8.8      850.0     1330.0
Nomura                   1.8  6.2      8.9        800       1200
Peking U                 1.9  5.9      8.8        800
Shenwan Hongyuan         1.9  5.8      8.9        850       1600
Southwest Sec            2.0  6.0      8.8        750         na
Standard
Chartered                1.8  5.5      9.1        979       1847
UBS                      1.9  5.8      8.8        900         na
                   Trade
                     Bal  Exports  Imports                Industrial      Retail
                  Nov ($   Nov ($   Nov ($      FAI       Production       Sales
                    Bln)       %)       %)  Jan-Nov              Nov         Nov
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median              36.5      6.0     11.0      7.2              6.1        10.3
High                51.8      9.1     16.0      7.3              6.4        10.8
Low                 27.8     -0.5      9.0      7.0              5.9         9.8
Mean                37.0      5.7     12.0      7.2              6.1        10.3
No.                   20       21       21       19               19          19
Previous            38.2      6.9     17.2      7.3              6.2          10
ANZ                 38.1      9.1     15.0       na               na          na
BAML                36.0      7.4     14.0      7.1              6.1        10.3
Bank of Comm          38      6.0     11.0      7.2              6.1        10.1
CICC                  na      5.0     10.0      7.2              6.1        10.5
Guohai Sec            na      6.5     11.0      7.3              6.0        10.2
Guotai Junan
Securities          36.3      7.0     10.0      7.0              6.2        10.5
HSBC                36.3      5.0     11.0       na               na          na
Huachuang Sec       51.8      2.3      9.0      7.1              6.1        10.3
Huatai Sec          42.0      7.0     10.0      7.3              6.0         9.8
Industrial Bank     43.0      5.0     12.0      7.2              6.0        10.4
ING                 32.2      6.5     14.8      7.2              6.3        10.5
Merchants Sec       37.0      8.0     14.3      7.2              6.2        10.8
Minsheng
Research            40.0      5.9      9.7      7.0              6.1         9.8
Mizuho              34.2      5.0     13.0      7.2              6.4        10.3
Moody's             33.0       na       na       na               na          na
Morgan Stanley      37.0      6.0     12.0      7.2              6.1        10.3
Nomura              27.8     -0.5      9.5      7.3              6.1         9.9
Peking U            40.0      6.7     15.5      7.1              6.0         9.9
Shenwan
Hongyuan            34.7      3.4      9.9      7.0              6.0        10.5
Southwest Sec       37.7      5.0     10.0      7.1              5.9        10.5
Standard
Chartered           32.5      7.0     16.0      7.1              6.4        10.3
UBS                 33.1      6.5     15.0      7.2              6.2        10.4
     Note: The survey median is compiled solely from the forecasts listed above
and is not intended to represent a market consensus.
     Nov. trade data due for release on Dec. 8, time uncertain.
     Nov. CPI, PPI due for release at 0930 local/0130 GMT Dec. 9; Nov.
industrial output, retail sales and ytd fixed-asset investment due for release
at 1000 local/0200 GMT on Dec. 14. 
     Nov. money supply, bank loans and total social financing expected to be
released between Dec. 11 and Dec. 13. Date and time uncertain.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: iris.ouyang@marketnews.com
--MNI BEIJING Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: john.carter@mni-news.com
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: beijing@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$]

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