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Market News Topics
May 16, 2018 08:10 GMT
MNI Table Of RBA Cash Rate Forecast;HSBC Pushes Back Hike View
By Sophia Rodrigues
SYDNEY (MNI) - Economists at HSBC have pushed back their forecast for the
first hike in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate citing soft wage price
data and a faster-than-expected cooling of the housing market.
They now expect first hike in this cycle in Q2 of 2019 versus previous
forecast for a hike in November.
"Today's soft wages print, particularly for the private sector, suggests
less momentum than we had expected. At the same time, the housing market has
cooled a bit more abruptly than forecast and the RBA remains very patient," HSBC
wrote in a note Wednesday.
Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics earlier Wednesday
showed wage price index rose 0.5% q/q in Q1, the same pace as Q4 which was
revised downwards from +0.6%. The outcome was lower than MNI median forecast for
+0.6% q/q.
Below is a table of forecasts for the next RBA cash rate decision on June 5
and the outlook for the cash rate. The cash rate is currently at 1.5%.
June 5 Outlook
-----------------------------------------------------------------
NAB Hold 25bps hike in Nov; 2 hikes in 2019
ANZ Hold Hold in 2018; Hike in mid-2019
Westpac Hold Hold 2018, 2019
CBA Hold 25bps hike Feb 2019
Goldman Sachs Hold 25bps hike in Nov
Citigroup Hold 25bps hike in Q1 2019
JP Morgan Hold Hold for foreseeable future
HSBC Hold 25bps hike in Q2 2019
TD Securities Hold 25bps hike in Nov
UBS Hold Hike in 2H 2019
Deutsche Bank Hold 2 hikes each in 2H 2019, 2020
AMP Capital Hold Hike sometime in 2020
Moody's Hold Hold through 2018; Hike early 2019
St. George Hold 25bps hike in Q1 2019
Macquarie Hold 25bps hike Q1 2019, 2.25% by end-2019
Nomura Hold 25bps hike in Nov
RBC Capital Hold Hold through 2018
BankAm-ML Hold 25bp hike in Nov
Morgan Stanley Hold Hold until Q3 2019
Standard Chartered Hold Hold in 2018
Wells Fargo Hold Hold well into 2018
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]
To read the full story
Close
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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