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Free AccessMNI Table:RBA Cash Rate Forecast;CBA Now Sees Hike In Feb 2019
--8/21 Still See Hike in November
By Sophia Rodrigues
SYDNEY (MNI) - Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia have pushed
back their forecast for the first hike in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash
rate to February next year from previous forecast for November hike.
Chief economist Michael Blythe said Thursday the macroeconomic backdrop
indicates the next move in interest rates is up but the RBA's patience will be
lengthened due to new uncertainties from falling dwelling prices, funding cost
pressures and tightening lending standards.
Last week AMP Capital and UBS pushed back their RBA hike forecasts.
With change in CBA view, eight out of 21 economists in MNI poll still
expect the RBA to hike 25 basis point in November.
Below is a table of forecasts for the RBA cash rate decision on June 5 and
the outlook for the cash rate, and where the risk is skewed (where available).
The cash rate is currently at 1.5%.
June 5 Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------
NAB Hold 25bps hike in Nov; 2 hikes in 2019
ANZ Hold Hold in 2018; Hike in mid-2019
Westpac Hold Hold 2018, 2019
CBA Hold 25bps hike in Feb 2019
Goldman Sachs Hold 25bps hike in Nov, risk of earlier
Citigroup Hold Hike in Nov, risk for later hike
JP Morgan Hold Hold for foreseeable future
HSBC Hold 25bps hike in Nov
TD Securities Hold 25bps hike in Nov
UBS Hold Hike in 2H 2019
Deutsche Bank Hold Hold 2018; 2 hikes each in 2H 2019, 2020
AMP Capital Hold Hike sometime in 2020
Moody's Hold Hold through 2018; Hike early 2019
St. George Hold 25bps hike in Q1 2019
Macquarie Hold 25bps hike Q1 2019, 2.25% by end-2019
Nomura Hold 25bps hike in Nov
RBC Capital Hold Hold through 2018
BankAm-ML Hold 25bp hike in Nov
Morgan Stanley Hold Hold until Q3 2019
Standard Chartered Hold Hold in 2018
Wells Fargo Hold Hold well into 2018
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.