MNI Table:RBA Cash Rate Forecast;CBA Now Sees Hike In Feb 2019

--8/21 Still See Hike in November

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia have pushed

back their forecast for the first hike in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash

rate to February next year from previous forecast for November hike.

     Chief economist Michael Blythe said Thursday the macroeconomic backdrop

indicates the next move in interest rates is up but the RBA's patience will be

lengthened due to new uncertainties from falling dwelling prices, funding cost

pressures and tightening lending standards.

     Last week AMP Capital and UBS pushed back their RBA hike forecasts.

     With change in CBA view, eight out of 21 economists in MNI poll still

expect the RBA to hike 25 basis point in November.

     Below is a table of forecasts for the RBA cash rate decision on June 5 and

the outlook for the cash rate, and where the risk is skewed (where available).

The cash rate is currently at 1.5%.

                    June 5                                   Outlook

--------------------------------------------------------------------

NAB                   Hold        25bps hike in Nov; 2 hikes in 2019

ANZ                   Hold            Hold in 2018; Hike in mid-2019

Westpac               Hold                           Hold 2018, 2019

CBA                   Hold                    25bps hike in Feb 2019

Goldman Sachs         Hold        25bps hike in Nov, risk of earlier

Citigroup             Hold          Hike in Nov, risk for later hike

JP Morgan             Hold               Hold for foreseeable future

HSBC                  Hold                         25bps hike in Nov

TD Securities         Hold                         25bps hike in Nov

UBS                   Hold                           Hike in 2H 2019

Deutsche Bank         Hold  Hold 2018; 2 hikes each in 2H 2019, 2020

AMP Capital           Hold                     Hike sometime in 2020

Moody's               Hold        Hold through 2018; Hike early 2019

St. George            Hold                     25bps hike in Q1 2019

Macquarie             Hold     25bps hike Q1 2019, 2.25% by end-2019

Nomura                Hold                         25bps hike in Nov

RBC Capital           Hold                         Hold through 2018

BankAm-ML             Hold                          25bp hike in Nov

Morgan Stanley        Hold                        Hold until Q3 2019

Standard Chartered    Hold                              Hold in 2018

Wells Fargo           Hold                       Hold well into 2018

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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