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UK DATA: MNI UK CPI and Labour Market Preview - December 2024 Release

UK DATA
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  • After this morning’s flash PMIs, the remainder of the week remains key with both labour market data (Tues) and CPI data (Wed) ahead of the MPC policy decision and MPS being released on Thursday.
  • The bottom line is that unless there are absolutely huge surprises in this week’s data, it looks very likely that Bank Rate will be left on hold. Our base case is for an 8-1 vote split (with Dhingra again preferring a 25bp cut) but soft CPI and wage data could lead to additional dissents for sequential cuts from either Taylor or Ramsden.
  • We see downside risks to CPI if the survey date is 19 November (rather than the widely expected 12 November). We discuss the impact of the date on Black Friday discounts.
  • For the labour market, we continue to pay most attention to private sector regular (i.e. non-bonus) AWE. This came in at 4.80%Y/Y in the 3-months to September (0.05ppt above the BOE’s 4.75% projection in the November MPR). 7/9 of the analyst previews that we have read look for a pickup of 2 tenths to 5.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to October (with one analyst at 5.1%Y/Y and one at 4.9%Y/Y).

For the full document including sell side summaries click here.

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  • After this morning’s flash PMIs, the remainder of the week remains key with both labour market data (Tues) and CPI data (Wed) ahead of the MPC policy decision and MPS being released on Thursday.
  • The bottom line is that unless there are absolutely huge surprises in this week’s data, it looks very likely that Bank Rate will be left on hold. Our base case is for an 8-1 vote split (with Dhingra again preferring a 25bp cut) but soft CPI and wage data could lead to additional dissents for sequential cuts from either Taylor or Ramsden.
  • We see downside risks to CPI if the survey date is 19 November (rather than the widely expected 12 November). We discuss the impact of the date on Black Friday discounts.
  • For the labour market, we continue to pay most attention to private sector regular (i.e. non-bonus) AWE. This came in at 4.80%Y/Y in the 3-months to September (0.05ppt above the BOE’s 4.75% projection in the November MPR). 7/9 of the analyst previews that we have read look for a pickup of 2 tenths to 5.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to October (with one analyst at 5.1%Y/Y and one at 4.9%Y/Y).

For the full document including sell side summaries click here.