MNI UK DATA SURVEY: UK January Inflation Data

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:57 GMT Feb 12/06:57 EST Feb 12

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - The fall in UK inflation from November's

five-and-a-half-year high of 3.1% to 3.0% in December has been viewed by some as

the start of a sustained downward trend in inflation having seen prices rocket

in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. 

     The median of the 16 forecasts was for a an unchanged January result, but

just as many analysts (7) who though CPI would hold firm at December's level

thought it would moderate further to 2.9%.     

     Domestically generated inflation pressures were thought to have

intensified, however, with core inflation pencilled in to increase to 2.6.

Meanwhile RPI was forecast to fall a percentage point lower to 4.0%.

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                          Jan     Jan       Jan     Jan     Jan

                          CPI     CPI  Core CPI     RPI     RPI

                        % MoM   % YoY     % YoY   % MoM   % YoY

Date Out               13-Feb  13-Feb    13-Feb  13-Feb  13-Feb

Median                   -0.6     3.0       2.6    -0.7     4.0

Forecast High            -0.4     3.1       2.8    -0.5     4.2

Forecast Low             -0.6     2.8       2.4    -0.7     4.0

Standard Deviation        0.1     0.1       0.1     0.1     0.1

Count                      10      16        12       8       9

Prior                     0.4     3.0       2.5     0.8     4.1

Barclays                 -0.5     3.0       2.8    -0.7     4.0

Berenberg                 N/A     2.9       2.6     N/A     N/A

Capital Economics        -0.5     3.0       2.7    -0.7     4.0

Credit Suisse             N/A     2.9       2.5     N/A     N/A

Commerzbank              -0.6     N/A       N/A     N/A     N/A

Daiwa Capital Markets     N/A     2.9       2.6     N/A     N/A

Investec                 -0.5     3.0       2.6    -0.6     4.1

JP Morgan                 N/A     3.0       2.6     N/A     4.0

Lloyds TSB               -0.5     3.0       2.6    -0.7     4.0

Natixis                  -0.6     2.9       2.6     N/A     N/A

Nomura                   -0.6     2.9       N/A    -0.7     4.0

Oxford Economics         -0.6     2.9       N/A    -0.7     4.1

Pantheon                  N/A     3.0       N/A     N/A     N/A

RBC                      -0.4     3.1       N/A    -0.5     4.2

Standard Chartered        N/A     2.9       2.6     N/A     N/A

Societe Generale         -0.6     3.0       2.6    -0.6     4.1

UniCredit                 N/A     2.8       2.4     N/A     N/A

     Factory gate inflationary pressures are expected to have quietened in

January. PPI input inflation is seen moderating to 4.2% from 4.9% in December.

This is expected to partially filter through to output prices with a 3.0%

January rise, down from 3.3% in December.

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                          Jan        Jan         Jan         Jan

                    PPI Input  PPI Input  PPI Output  PPI Output

                        % MoM      % YoY       % MoM       % YoY

Date Out               13-Feb     13-Feb      13-Feb      13-Feb

Median                    0.6        4.2         0.2         3.0

Forecast High             1.5        4.7         0.4         3.2

Forecast Low              0.3        3.7         0.1         2.8

Standard Deviation        0.4        0.4         0.1         0.1

Count                       7          6           7           6

Prior                     0.1        4.9         0.4         3.3

Capital Economics         0.3        3.7         0.2         2.9

Investec                  0.7        4.2         0.3         3.0

Lloyds TSB                0.8        4.7         0.2         3.0

Nomura                    0.3        3.8         0.4         3.2

Oxford Economics          0.6        4.1         0.2         3.0

Pantheon                  0.5        N/A         0.3         N/A

Societe Generale          1.5        4.4         0.1         2.8

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com