MNI BRIEF: Japan Q1 GDP To Fall 0.4% Q/Q; Annualised -1.6%

MNI BRIEF: Canada Opposition Leader Removed From Legislature

CANADA Q1 FLASH ANNUALIZED GDP +2.5%, +0.6% QOQ

MNI WATCH: CNB Seen Cutting 50Bps to 5.25%, Signal Slower Pace

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Tackling Risks In Real Estate, Debts

US MBA: REFIS -3% SA; PURCH INDEX -2% SA THRU APRIL 26 WK

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -2.3% SA THRU APR 26 WK

Small upward revision to UK manufacturing PMI; little market impact

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight: April 2024 Release

UK DATA
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • We think that this week’s labour market and inflation data point to both wages and inflation slightly above the BOE’s forecasts from its February MPR report and combined with activity data holding up relatively well at present, we think that the probability of a later first rate cut has increased.
  • The MNI Markets team now looks for around a 10% probability of a first cut in May (down from 15% post-March MPC), have also reduced our expectation of a first cut in June to 30% (down from 35%), have maintained our 40% probability view of an August first cut but see a 20% probability (up from 10%) of the first cut being delayed beyond August. We discuss this view in more detail.
  • To achieve the BOE's February MPR forecast for private sector regular wage growth 5.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to March looks like we will need to see a slowdown in next month's wage numbers to not come in 0.1-0.2ppt above forecast (although this forecast will be updated in the interim in the May MPR). This appears to be a bigger surprise to the consensus than to us.
  • Six analysts have changed their BOE calls following this week’s data with none of the analysts looking for a first cut in May anymore. Analysts are split between June and August for the first cut with a growing consensus around Bank Rate ending 2024 at 4.50% and 3.25-3.50% end-2025.
  • We also summarise sell-side reviews of the inflation and labour market releases in more detail.
For the full PDF click here.
253 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • We think that this week’s labour market and inflation data point to both wages and inflation slightly above the BOE’s forecasts from its February MPR report and combined with activity data holding up relatively well at present, we think that the probability of a later first rate cut has increased.
  • The MNI Markets team now looks for around a 10% probability of a first cut in May (down from 15% post-March MPC), have also reduced our expectation of a first cut in June to 30% (down from 35%), have maintained our 40% probability view of an August first cut but see a 20% probability (up from 10%) of the first cut being delayed beyond August. We discuss this view in more detail.
  • To achieve the BOE's February MPR forecast for private sector regular wage growth 5.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to March looks like we will need to see a slowdown in next month's wage numbers to not come in 0.1-0.2ppt above forecast (although this forecast will be updated in the interim in the May MPR). This appears to be a bigger surprise to the consensus than to us.
  • Six analysts have changed their BOE calls following this week’s data with none of the analysts looking for a first cut in May anymore. Analysts are split between June and August for the first cut with a growing consensus around Bank Rate ending 2024 at 4.50% and 3.25-3.50% end-2025.
  • We also summarise sell-side reviews of the inflation and labour market releases in more detail.
For the full PDF click here.