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MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight: Dec 2024 Release

Private wage data has come in significantly higher than expected. We look at the implications from CPI and labour report
HomepageInflation InsightCEEMEAUKMarketsStoryEmployment Insight
MNI (LONDON)
  • This week’s key pre-BOE meeting press releases have seen wage data come in significantly higher than expected, inflation data marginally lower than expected and the quantity side of the official labour market statistics have continued to moderate.
  • The market has focused most heavily on the earnings numbers and seen a significant repricing of 2025 rate cut expectations, with less than two 25bp cuts fully priced in now (from more than three before the labour market data was published).
  • Expectations for today’s MPC meeting have not really shifted, but we do think that it cements the expectation that there will be no change in guidance today and the chance of any other MPC member joining Dhingra in dissent is looking more remote than previously.
  • We therefore continue to look for an 8-1 vote split today.

For the full document see: MNI UK Inflation Labour Insight - December 2024 Release.pdf

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MNI (LONDON)
  • This week’s key pre-BOE meeting press releases have seen wage data come in significantly higher than expected, inflation data marginally lower than expected and the quantity side of the official labour market statistics have continued to moderate.
  • The market has focused most heavily on the earnings numbers and seen a significant repricing of 2025 rate cut expectations, with less than two 25bp cuts fully priced in now (from more than three before the labour market data was published).
  • Expectations for today’s MPC meeting have not really shifted, but we do think that it cements the expectation that there will be no change in guidance today and the chance of any other MPC member joining Dhingra in dissent is looking more remote than previously.
  • We therefore continue to look for an 8-1 vote split today.

For the full document see: MNI UK Inflation Labour Insight - December 2024 Release.pdf