April 15, 2024 17:51 GMT
MNI UK Inflation and Labour Preview - April 2024 Release
UK DATA
- It’s another key week for UK data, with the highlights being labour market data due for release on Tuesday and inflation data due Wednesday.
- Looking at the biggest single risks to both – Easter effects (particularly airfares) could boost inflation, while wage data could be higher-than-expected if there are more companies looking to pre-empt the National Living Wage (NLW) increases that are due to come in in April.
- However, if either of these appear to be the drivers of upside surprises, although we may get a temporary spike in markets, we think the MPC would generally look through these.
- Conversely, if we were to see downside surprises to either wage or services inflation data, the drivers are more likely to be more broad based.
- The MNI Markets team thinks that the market is underpricing MPC cuts this year at the time of writing.
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