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MNI UK Inflation and Labour Preview - February 2024 Release

UK DATA
  • It’s another key week for UK data, with labour market data due for release on Tuesday, inflation data due Wednesday, activity data due Thursday and retail sales data due on Friday.
  • Labour market data on Tuesday will still see the majority of the focus on wage data. As we had noted in our Inflation and Labour Market Insight last month, the AWE data in December are expected to come in around 1ppt below the Bank’s November MPR forecast. Analysts are split between a 6.0%Y/Y and 6.1% Y/Y print for private regular AWE in the 3-months to December.
  • CPI will see new weights for 2024. We discuss the implications of these as well as the main components that could cause key risks to this week's release. Analysts look for headline CPI to come in at 4.1%Y/Y in January (in line with the BOE but with upside risks). But look for services inflation to come in higher than the Bank's estimate at 6.7%Y/Y (median) / 6.8%Y/Y (mean) - above the Bank's forecasts.
  • We also review notable sellside comments ahead of the GDP print next week.
For the full document including summaries of sellside views for the labour market and inflation see the full PDF here.
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