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MNI UK Inflation and Labour Preview - July 2024 Release

  • There are generally assumed to be upside risks to inflation (from the Swift concerts primarily) but after the initial impact, if this was the driver and the rest of the print is not higher-than-expected we would expect some relief.
  • We look at the impact of Beyonce's concerts last year on CPI - and what a similar impact would do this year.
  • We think there are upside risks to private sector regular wage growth relative to consensus and in fact think an unchanged print of 5.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to May is more likely than a print in line with consensus of 5.6%Y/Y.
For the full document including summaries of sellside views for inflation and the labour market see the full PDF here:

UK_Data_Preview_2024_07_Release.pdf


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