MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Sees Rates Down 'Fair Amount' In '25

MNI BRIEF: December Fed Cut 'Absolutely Not' Off Table - Daly

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, Dec 3

MNI BRIEF: China-Based UK Firms Facing Challenges

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY248 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1996 Tue; -1.92% Y/Y

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Greece, EU Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Wednesday

MNI: US BLS: JOLTS OPENINGS RATE 7.744M IN OCT

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI UK Inflation Insight: November 2023: Significant downside surprise

Significant downside surprise; tightening bias to go in Feb?

  • After a downside surprise to both headline CPI and services CPI a month ago (October data), the November inflation report repeated those surprises again, meaning that headline CPI surprised the BOE’s November MPR forecasts by 0.7ppt in November with services CPI 0.6ppt below the Bank’s forecast.
  • Some of the downside surprise can be attributed to potentially "temporary factors" but even if there is some scope for a bit of a rebound in December services CPI, it is unlikely to be anywhere near the magnitude of a 0.6ppt reversal to get us close to the BOE's November MPR forecast.
  • We discuss the main components that have driven the move.
  • We reiterate our view that it will be hard for markets to meaningfully price more than the 140bp of cuts currently priced in. However, we also think that there is a good chance that the Bank’s February communication potentially removes the tightening bias.
For the full PDF including 10 sellside summaries see:

MNI UK Inflation Insight - December 2023 Release.pdf

HomepageInflation InsightMarkets
HomepageInflation InsightMarkets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.