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MNI UK Labour Market Preview: November 2024 Release

We see more upside than downside risks to private regular AWE in tomorrow's release.
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MNI (LONDON)
  • After the CPI data and possibly the PMI data, this release is still up there as one of the most important UK domestic releases of the month.
  • We still place most emphasis on private sector regular AWE. The November latest MPR forecast looks for this metric to come in at 4.75%Y/Y in the 3-months to September (but rounding up to 4.8% to 1dp), a little below the 4.83%Y/Y forecast it made 3-months prior) and August print of 4.81%, but a little above the 4.7% MNI median.
  • It appears to us as though there are some risks that the 3-month number rounds up to 4.8%Y/Y here – or at least that seems more likely than a 4.6%Y/Y print in the 3-months to September.
  • The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.17% by the BOE (4.1% MNI median and Bloomberg consensus) up from 3.99% in August. Given the volatility (and unreliability) of the LFS data, we don’t place too much weight on the unemployment rate.

For the full document see the PDF: UK_Data_Labour_2024_11_Release.pdf

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MNI (LONDON)
  • After the CPI data and possibly the PMI data, this release is still up there as one of the most important UK domestic releases of the month.
  • We still place most emphasis on private sector regular AWE. The November latest MPR forecast looks for this metric to come in at 4.75%Y/Y in the 3-months to September (but rounding up to 4.8% to 1dp), a little below the 4.83%Y/Y forecast it made 3-months prior) and August print of 4.81%, but a little above the 4.7% MNI median.
  • It appears to us as though there are some risks that the 3-month number rounds up to 4.8%Y/Y here – or at least that seems more likely than a 4.6%Y/Y print in the 3-months to September.
  • The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.17% by the BOE (4.1% MNI median and Bloomberg consensus) up from 3.99% in August. Given the volatility (and unreliability) of the LFS data, we don’t place too much weight on the unemployment rate.

For the full document see the PDF: UK_Data_Labour_2024_11_Release.pdf