MNI: US Consumers See Lower Inflation, Better Jobs - NY Fed

MNI BRIEF: Risks To Growth Evident, Await Dec Forecasts -Rehn

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, November 12

MNI BRIEF: Prolonged Tightening If Expectations Worsen - BCB

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY107.2 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1927 Tues; +1.32% Y/Y

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: IT, UK, DE, PO Auction Wednesday

MNI: US REDBOOK: NOV STORE SALES +4.8% V YR AGO MO

MNI: CANADIAN SEP BUILDING PERMITS +11.5% MOM

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI UK Labour Market Preview: November 2024 Release

We see more upside than downside risks to private regular AWE in tomorrow's release.
HomepageCEEMEAUKGlobalStoryEmployment InsightRegionMarkets
MNI (LONDON)
  • After the CPI data and possibly the PMI data, this release is still up there as one of the most important UK domestic releases of the month.
  • We still place most emphasis on private sector regular AWE. The November latest MPR forecast looks for this metric to come in at 4.75%Y/Y in the 3-months to September (but rounding up to 4.8% to 1dp), a little below the 4.83%Y/Y forecast it made 3-months prior) and August print of 4.81%, but a little above the 4.7% MNI median.
  • It appears to us as though there are some risks that the 3-month number rounds up to 4.8%Y/Y here – or at least that seems more likely than a 4.6%Y/Y print in the 3-months to September.
  • The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.17% by the BOE (4.1% MNI median and Bloomberg consensus) up from 3.99% in August. Given the volatility (and unreliability) of the LFS data, we don’t place too much weight on the unemployment rate.

For the full document see the PDF: UK_Data_Labour_2024_11_Release.pdf

167 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI (LONDON)
  • After the CPI data and possibly the PMI data, this release is still up there as one of the most important UK domestic releases of the month.
  • We still place most emphasis on private sector regular AWE. The November latest MPR forecast looks for this metric to come in at 4.75%Y/Y in the 3-months to September (but rounding up to 4.8% to 1dp), a little below the 4.83%Y/Y forecast it made 3-months prior) and August print of 4.81%, but a little above the 4.7% MNI median.
  • It appears to us as though there are some risks that the 3-month number rounds up to 4.8%Y/Y here – or at least that seems more likely than a 4.6%Y/Y print in the 3-months to September.
  • The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.17% by the BOE (4.1% MNI median and Bloomberg consensus) up from 3.99% in August. Given the volatility (and unreliability) of the LFS data, we don’t place too much weight on the unemployment rate.

For the full document see the PDF: UK_Data_Labour_2024_11_Release.pdf