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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Released on Wednesday at 0830ET, consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.2% M/M in August in what’s likely only a minor uptick from unrounded 0.16% M/M readings in both June and July.
- The main increase is seen coming from airfares after two particularly heavy declines, muddying implications for core PCE seeing as it leans on PPI airfares (to be released Thursday).
- The Fed’s closely watched core services ex housing measures should firm further, which despite the above could still catch headlines.
- The market sees very low odds of a hike next week and roughly 50/50 probability of a hike by year-end, from a combination of data and cautiously optimistic Fedspeak. Cut expectations meanwhile are near recent lows, approaching 100bps from the terminal to end-2024 and more closely aligned with the June dot plot.
- Both PPI and retail sales land the day after on Thursday, before the Sept 19-20 FOMC meeting.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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