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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Core CPI inflation is seen slowing slightly to 0.5% M/M in October after surprise persistence at 0.58% in Sept. The analyst survey is skewed slightly lower although the Cleveland Fed Nowcast implies upside risk.
- The bulk of the expected moderation in October core is seen coming from used cars declining at a faster pace and a health insurance reset. So it’ll likely be changes outside of these components that are of note, especially service components with rents expected to continue to increase extremely strongly.
- A similar 0.1-0.2pt beat to last month could see a delay in the Fed’s anticipated downshift to 50bp hikes into 2023 or augur a longer string of hikes, either way pushing the terminal rate higher still and driving a sharp flattening in the Treasury curve.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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