Free Trial

MNI US CPI Preview: Consensus Eyes Moderation Confirmation


  • Released Dec 13, core CPI inflation is seen broadly stabilising at a ‘softer’ 0.3% M/M in November after the surprise 0.27% in October, although analyst surveys suggest some upside risk.
  • OER and rents of primary residence could see a modest renewed uptick whilst we also watch for the ongoing core goods disinflation/deflation trend and notably core services excluding shelter after particular emphasis from Chair Powell.
  • Landing on day one of the two-day FOMC meeting, the report would have to be wildly different to consensus to see something other than the 50bp hike viewed as locked in for Wed but with two-way risk to the Fed rate path further out.
  • Whilst a beat or miss compared to expectations might be a logistical challenge to change SEP forecasts and dots, it could however shape the language of the statement and perhaps notably Powell’s presser.



Three key themes to watch: core goods, shelter and core services excluding shelter:

To read the full story


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.