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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US INFLATION
We've published our preview of the May CPI report out on Wednesday June 12 (0830ET/1330UK) - PDF here.
- Sequential core inflation is seen remaining relatively steady in May at 0.3% M/M (median; 0.28% average unrounded) vs 0.29% in April, per MNI’s compilation of sell-side previews.
- Headline CPI is expected to pull back fairly sharply to 0.1% (median; 0.12% average unrounded) vs 0.31% in April, owing largely to a drop in energy/gasoline prices on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
- Both core services and core goods inflation prints are seen relatively steady versus April, with owners’ equivalent rent (OER) and rents at around 0.4% M/M each, used car and lodging prices rebounding, and car insurance inflation cooling slightly but still very high.
- This outcome should likewise keep “supercore” (core services ex-shelter) inflation fairly steady also around 0.4%, albeit with a decent dispersion of analyst expectations (0.36-0.46%).
- With the release coming only hours before the FOMC releases its June decision and updated economic projections, the result could impact the Fed’s messaging, if not the Dot Plot.
- The consensus outcome would provide limited relief for the Committee that at least inflation isn’t reaccelerating in the way nonfarm payrolls did in May, even if it suggests that inflation is stalling out at above-target levels.
- A softer-than-expected reading (particularly if seen translating into PCE terms) would arguably mark a second consecutive month of “confidence”-building that inflation is converging with 2%. An upside miss however could reset the clock on building that confidence, pushing back market cut pricing even further back beyond September.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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