MNI US CPI Preview: Potentially Stubborn Supercore To Be Treated With Caution

A quick reminder that we published our full preview of today’s U.S. CPI release on Wednesday.

• We noted that if analysts are correct, supercore trend rates are likely to remain very strong at 4% annualized handles, but treat with some caution as differences in methodology have seen core PCE at notably weaker rates in recent months.
• The extent to which volatile factors such as airfares can once again help shape the market reaction.
• Even without a beat, the realization of still relatively sticky core CPI inflation could help continue a trimming of Fed rate cut expectations compared to extremes seen late last year. That said we wouldn’t rule out a miss seeing a renewed push towards more fully pricing in a March cut even if that seems too early in our view.
• Click for the full preview.