MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov CGPI Rises 3.7% Y/Y, Import Prices Drop

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI US CPI Preview: Setting The Tone For 2025

November's inflation data will potentially have implications for Fed rate guidance and quarterly forecasts.
Inflation InsightHomepageMarketsStory

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Analysts’ forecasts for November CPI imply remarkably steady sequential inflation versus October, with the MNI median and average for core expected to show an unchanged 0.28% M/M.
  • Combined with Thursday’s estimates for PPI inputs, core PCE is in turn seen moderating to between 0.18-0.25% M/M in November, vs 0.27% in October.
  • Headline inflation is seen picking up slightly, to 0.27% (median) from 0.24% prior, with both food and energy prices accelerating slightly on a sequential basis.
  • On an annual basis, that means steady Y/Y core (3.3%), with a modest uptick in headline (2.7% vs 2.6%).
  • Following a largely in-line November Employment report, and particularly a 4-month high unemployment rate (4.25%), the bar to a pause at the December FOMC meeting is set high. There would have to be an extremely strong CPI reading to see a pause back on the table.
  • An in-line CPI report, even an above-consensus one that is driven by upside surprises in volatile components (eg airfares), would keep the Fed on track to cut by 25bp that is over 80% implied by futures. However, this inflation round will have implications for 2025 rate guidance, as well as the latest set of FOMC quarterly projections. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

Keep reading...Show less
202 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Analysts’ forecasts for November CPI imply remarkably steady sequential inflation versus October, with the MNI median and average for core expected to show an unchanged 0.28% M/M.
  • Combined with Thursday’s estimates for PPI inputs, core PCE is in turn seen moderating to between 0.18-0.25% M/M in November, vs 0.27% in October.
  • Headline inflation is seen picking up slightly, to 0.27% (median) from 0.24% prior, with both food and energy prices accelerating slightly on a sequential basis.
  • On an annual basis, that means steady Y/Y core (3.3%), with a modest uptick in headline (2.7% vs 2.6%).
  • Following a largely in-line November Employment report, and particularly a 4-month high unemployment rate (4.25%), the bar to a pause at the December FOMC meeting is set high. There would have to be an extremely strong CPI reading to see a pause back on the table.
  • An in-line CPI report, even an above-consensus one that is driven by upside surprises in volatile components (eg airfares), would keep the Fed on track to cut by 25bp that is over 80% implied by futures. However, this inflation round will have implications for 2025 rate guidance, as well as the latest set of FOMC quarterly projections. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

Keep reading...Show less