MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Advance 1st Qtr GDP Seen Up 2.0%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Analysts see GDP rising by 2.0 in the first 

quarter's advance estimate, below the 2.2% gain in the fourth quarter. 

Analysts cite the fading effects of a tax stimulus, the parital 

government shutdown, and severe weather conditions as the key negative 

factors and residential construction and exports as positive factors. 

The chain price index is expected to rise to a 1.8% rate from the 1.7% 

gain in the previous quarter. 

     Analysts underestimated advance GDP in the each of the most recent 

two quarters. Missing data for the third month of the quarter, in this 

case March, is always a risk. 

                                            Final   Final

                                            Growth  Final   Median less

                                             Rate:   Sales:  actual advance:

Forecast:                             4Q-18     2.2      2.1   4Q-18   -0.1

 Median               2.0             3Q-18     3.4      1.0   3Q-18   -0.2

 Range High           2.5             2Q-18     4.2      5.4   2Q-18    0.3

 Range Low            1.5             1Q-18     2.0      2.0   1Q-18   -0.3

                                                                            1Q avg/

                                                                            4Q avg

                                                                             % chg

                             Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19 Ann Rate

Indices:

  BLS Agg Hours               110.3   110.1   110.7   110.9   110.6   111.1    1.8

  Ind. Production             109.9   110.5   110.6   110.2   110.3   110.2   -0.4

$ blns unless otherwise noted:

  Real PCE**                13021.4 13079.2 12996.3 13011.9    #N/A    #N/A   #N/A

  Total Retail Sls            511.6   511.6   503.3   507.2   506.1   514.1    0.2

  Non-MV Retail Sls           408.1   407.7   399.1   404.8   403.8   408.6    0.8

  Mtr Veh Retail Sls          103.6   103.8   104.2   102.4   102.3   105.5   -1.9

  Control Retail Sls          268.7   270.8   264.9   269.6   268.6   271.3    2.6

  Civ Cap Shipments            77.7    79.6    79.6    78.5    79.0    79.0   -0.6

  Civ Cap Shipms ex Air        69.0    68.9    68.9    69.6    69.8    69.6    4.2

  Bus. Invs**                1980.1  1979.7  1994.6  2011.7  2017.4   2014.5   6.1

 Constr. Spending**          1290.6  1273.1  1276.0  1307.3  1320.3   1313.8  11.0

  Priv Residential Cons**     526.1   522.7   527.6   536.9   541.0    539.0  10.7

  Priv Nonresidential Cons    458.1   448.4   451.1   456.0   453.6    454.8   2.1

  Public Construction**       306.4   302.1   297.3   314.4   325.8    320.1  26.3

 Goods Gap (2012 $)**          89.0    81.6    91.7    83.5    81.8     82.6 -20.0

  Goods Exports (2012 $)**    148.7   149.0   146.7   149.9   150.7    150.3   6.1

  Goods Imports (2012 $)**    237.6   230.5   238.3   233.4   232.5    233.0  -4.3

**In cases where quarterly data are not complete,

the average of the first two months of the quarter is

substituted for the third month.

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]