MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Advance 3rd Qtr GDP Seen Up 3.3%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Analysts see a 3.3% increase for third quarter 

GDP in the advance estimate, softer than the 4.2% gain in the second 

quarter, but  still above the first quarter. The key factors are 

expected to be softer business investment and net exports than in the 

previous quarter, with  the latter offering payback for the strong 

export growth in the second  quarter ahead of the tariff implementation. 

Consumption is expected to  again be a very positive factor in the 

headline number. The chain price index is expected to rise by 1.9% in 

the third quarter after a 3.0% gain in the previous quarter. 

     Analysts overestimated advance GDP in the second quarter after an 

underestimate in the previous quarter. Missing data for the third month 

of the quarter, in this case September, is always a risk, though the 

advance estimates of trade and retail and wholesale inventories lessen 

that risk. 

                             Growth  Final   Median less

                              Rate:   Sales:  actual advance:

Forecast:              2Q-18    4.2      5.4   2Q-18    0.3

 Median         3.3    1Q-18    2.0      2.0   1Q-18   -0.3

 Range High     3.6    4Q-17    2.9      3.4   4Q-17    0.4

 Range Low      2.9    3Q-17    3.2      2.4   3Q-17   -0.3

                                                                            3Q avg/

                                                                            2Q avg

                                                                             % chg

                             Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18 Ann Rate

Indices:

  BLS Agg Hours               109.2   109.4   109.9   109.7   110.0   110.1    1.6

  Ind. Production             107.7   106.8   107.5   107.8   108.2   108.5    3.1

$ blns unless otherwise noted:

  Real PCE**                12799.2 12842.8 12884.1 12924.8 12953.5  12939.2   3.1

  Total Retail Sls            497.8   504.0   505.2   508.2   508.5   509.0    5.1

  Non-MV Retail Sls           395.6   401.2   402.5   405.5   406.4   406.1    6.4

  Mtr Veh Retail Sls          102.1   102.7   102.7   102.7   102.2   102.9    0.3

  Control Retail Sls          271.2   273.4   273.4   275.5   275.4   276.7    4.8

  Civ Cap Shipments            74.0    76.5    78.3    75.1    77.4    79.5    5.7

  Civ Cap Shipms ex Air        67.2    67.3    68.0    68.8    68.8    68.8    7.7

  Bus. Invs**                1929.4  1935.6  1937.6  1950.6  1960.8  1955.7    4.5

 Constr. Spending**          1314.7  1324.3  1314.8  1317.4  1318.5  1318.0    0.0

  Priv Residential Cons**     563.4   561.9   551.7   553.0   548.9   551.0   -5.6

  Priv Nonresidential Cons    451.9   454.9   457.8   453.9   452.9   453.4   -1.3

  Public Construction**       299.4   307.5   305.4   310.5   316.7   313.6   13.2

 Goods Gap (2012 $)**          77.6    75.5    79.3    82.4    86.3    84.4   40.5

  Goods Exports (2012 $)**    150.5   153.1   151.1   149.6   147.8   148.7   -7.5

  Goods Imports (2012 $)**    228.2   228.6   230.5   232.0   234.1   233.1    7.1

**In cases where quarterly data are not complete, the average of the 

first two months of the quarter is substituted for the third month. 

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]