MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: April CPI Seen +0.4% On Gas>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - CPI is expected to rise 0.4% in April after the 

same increase in the previous month. Gasoline prices are expected to 

post a further gain, as suggested by the monthly AAA data. Food prices 

are expected to flatten out after posting a 0.3% rise in March. The core 

CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following below-trend 0.1% gains in the 

previous two months. An extremely large apparel price decline was a key 

factor in March that could be reversed in the April report. 

     Analysts correctly estimated headline CPI in March and slightly 

overestimated core CPI, with the largest drop in 70 years in apparel 

prices a key factor. For April CPI, there is a no clear forecast bias. 

                         Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.0    -0.2     0.1     0.2     0.4     0.4

 Range High                 0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.3     0.5     0.5

 Range Low                  0.0    -0.2     0.0     0.1     0.3     0.2

Actual result               0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.2     0.4    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.0    -0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18

 Median                    -0.3     0.3     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.3

 Range High                 0.3     0.3     0.1     0.5     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                 -0.4     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.2     0.2

Actual result              -0.4     0.3     0.1     0.4     0.2     0.2

 Median-Actual              0.1     0.0     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1

                         Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result               0.1     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.1     0.1

 Median-Actual              0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1

Change in:

                                   Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal) 2.413   2.232   2.273   2.492   2.748

  mo/mo pct change                    #N/A   -7.5     1.8     9.6    10.3

ISM Mfg Index Price Index            54.9    49.6    49.4    54.3    50.0

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index         58.0    59.4    54.4    58.7    55.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]