MNI: US Data Forecast Focus:April Final Demand PPI Seen +0.3%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise by 0.3% in 

April after a surprise 0.6% March increase. Energy prices are expected 

to rise further, though at a slower rate, following a 5.6% surge in the 

previous month, while food prices are expected to hold steady after a 

0.3% rebound. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 

0.2% after a stronger-than-expected 0.3% gain in March. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated both overall and core PPI in March. 

Misses in April have tended to toward overestimates for overall PPI, but 

an underestimate is more likely for core PPI if there is a miss at all. 

                          Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

Overall PPI Forecast:

 Median                     -0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.3

 Range High                  0.2     0.0     0.6     0.3     0.4     0.4

 Range Low                  -0.3    -0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.3     0.1

Actual result                0.1    -0.2    -0.1     0.1     0.6    #N/A

 Median-Actual              -0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1    -0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison     Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18

 Median                     -0.6     0.2     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.0     0.3     0.2     0.5     0.4     0.4

 Range Low                  -0.9    -0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2

Actual result               -0.7     0.6    -0.4     0.2     0.5     0.1

 Median-Actual               0.1    -0.4     0.5     0.1    -0.3     0.1

                          Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

Core PPI Forecast:

 Median                      0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                   0.0    -0.1     0.2     0.0     0.1     0.1

Actual result                0.3    -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.3    #N/A

 Median-Actual              -0.2     0.3    -0.1     0.1    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18

 Median                      0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3

 Range Low                  -0.5    -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result                0.1     0.5    -0.2     0.1     0.4     0.2

 Median-Actual               0.0    -0.3     0.3     0.0    -0.2     0.0

NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward, forecast data are for Final Demand PPI and Core

                                  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

ISM Mfg Index Price Index           54.9    49.6    49.4    54.3    50.0

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index        58.0    59.4    54.4    58.7    55.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]