MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: April Industrial Prod Seen Flat>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to hold steady 

in April after a 0.1% decrease in March. Factory payrolls rose by only 

4,000 in April, while auto production jobs fell by 2,000 and the factory 

workweek was unchanged at 40.7 hours. The ISM production index fell to 

52.3 in the current month from 55.8 in the previous month. Utilities 

production is expected to rise further in the month after a 0.2% 

increase in March, as weather was unseasonably warm in April. Mining 

production is forecast to rebound modestly after a 0.8% decline in the 

previous month. Capacity utilization is forecast to tick down further to 

78.7% after falling slightly to 78.8% in March. 

     Analysts overestimated industrial production in February and March, 

with soft manufacturing and mining production the key factors in the 

most recent month. Historical data are split between overestimates and 

underestimates over the the last ten years, with underestimates in each 

of the last three years. 

Industrial Production:     Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

Forecast:

 Median                       0.5     0.1     0.2     0.4     0.2     0.0

 High                         0.7     0.4     0.2     1.1     0.4     0.3

 Low                          0.3    -0.5    -0.2     0.0    -0.2    -0.5

Actual result                 0.6     0.3    -0.6     0.1    -0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -0.1    -0.2     0.8     0.3     0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18

 Median                      -0.2     0.0    -0.1     0.5     0.6     0.6

 High                         0.3     0.5     0.3     0.7     1.0     1.0

 Low                         -0.7    -0.5    -0.7    -0.2     0.2     0.1

Actual result                -0.5    -0.6    -0.3     0.7     1.0     0.7

 Median-Actual                0.3     0.6     0.2    -0.2    -0.4    -0.1

Capacity Utilization:      Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

Forecast:

 Median                      78.7    78.4    78.8    78.5    79.2    78.7

 High                        78.8    78.7    78.8    79.0    79.4    79.0

 Low                         78.5    78.3    78.4    78.0    78.2    78.4

Actual result                78.5    78.7    78.2    78.2    78.8    #N/A

 Median-Actual                0.2    -0.3     0.6     0.3     0.4    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18

 Median                      78.3    78.3    78.2    75.0    76.4    78.4

 High                        78.6    78.6    78.6    75.4    76.7    78.7

 Low                         77.8    77.8    77.7    74.5    76.2    78.2

Actual result                77.8    77.8    78.2    75.4    76.7    78.0

 Median-Actual                0.5     0.5     0.0    -0.4    -0.3     0.4

                           Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

NA-Made Veh Sales Ex. GM,     7.4     7.6     7.1     7.1     7.7     7.1

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg       0.2     0.3    -0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0

Factory Jobs (000's)           27      20      17       8       0       4

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)        -2       1      -1       2      -6      -2

Mining Jobs (000's)            -3       4       5      -2       1      -2

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                58.8    54.3    56.6    54.2    55.3    52.8

  ISM Mfg Production         59.9    54.1    60.5    54.8    55.8    52.3

  Phila. Fed Index           11.9     9.1    17.0    -4.1    13.7     8.5

  Empire State Index         21.4    11.5     3.9     8.8     3.7    10.1

  Chicago PMI                63.5    63.8    56.7    64.7    58.7    52.6

  Factory Workweek           40.8    40.9    40.8    40.7    40.7    40.7

  Factory Overtime            3.5     3.6     3.5     3.5     3.4     3.4

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]