MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: April Payrolls Seen +185,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 

in April after a much weaker-than-expected 103,000 rise in March and a 

strong 326,000 rise in February. The unemployment rate is expected to 

fall to 4.0% after holding steady at 4.1% in recent months. Hourly 

earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% gain, while the average 

workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month.  

     Analysts sharply overestimated payrolls in March after the 

significant underestimate in February, so perhaps April will see a 

more trend-like result. There is a tendency to underestimate April 

payrolls, so a stronger-than-expected reading is possible. 

Forecast:                  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-17  Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17

 Median                       200     190     185     210     195     185

 Range High                   250     210     230     250     250     255

 Range Low                    165     170     160     175     130     145

Actual original result        228     148     200     313     103    #N/A

 Median-Actual                -28      42     -15    -103      92    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

 Median                       165     150     220     233     205     195

 Range High                   200     190     250     315     250     225

 Range Low                    105     100     180     180     170     165

Actual original result        115     165     288     223     160     211

 Median-Actual                 50     -15     -68      10      45     -16

                           Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-17  Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17

ISM Mfg Employment           59.2    58.1    54.2    59.7    57.3    54.2

ISM Nonmfg Employment        55.4    56.3    61.6    55.0    56.6    53.6

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       37.5    36.3    37.2    39.1    39.5    38.1

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   20.7    20.3    20.9    24.0    23.8    22.9

Net change from survey week

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd      9       3     -16      -8       9       6

  4-week mvg avg               -6      -4       5     -14      -2       7

 Continuing claims             38      -9     -14       0     -46     -43

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH     1.4    -1.4

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    200     249     241     241     228     204

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]