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Free AccessMNI: US Data Forecast Focus: April Payrolls Seen +185,000>
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000
in April after a much weaker-than-expected 103,000 rise in March and a
strong 326,000 rise in February. The unemployment rate is expected to
fall to 4.0% after holding steady at 4.1% in recent months. Hourly
earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% gain, while the average
workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another month.
Analysts sharply overestimated payrolls in March after the
significant underestimate in February, so perhaps April will see a
more trend-like result. There is a tendency to underestimate April
payrolls, so a stronger-than-expected reading is possible.
Forecast: Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
Median 200 190 185 210 195 185
Range High 250 210 230 250 250 255
Range Low 165 170 160 175 130 145
Actual original result 228 148 200 313 103 #N/A
Median-Actual -28 42 -15 -103 92 #N/A
Historical comparison: Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
Median 165 150 220 233 205 195
Range High 200 190 250 315 250 225
Range Low 105 100 180 180 170 165
Actual original result 115 165 288 223 160 211
Median-Actual 50 -15 -68 10 45 -16
Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17
ISM Mfg Employment 59.2 58.1 54.2 59.7 57.3 54.2
ISM Nonmfg Employment 55.4 56.3 61.6 55.0 56.6 53.6
Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful 37.5 36.3 37.2 39.1 39.5 38.1
Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap 20.7 20.3 20.9 24.0 23.8 22.9
Net change from survey week
Initial claims (Chg thsnd 9 3 -16 -8 9 6
4-week mvg avg -6 -4 5 -14 -2 7
Continuing claims 38 -9 -14 0 -46 -43
Strikers (Net Chg thsnd) UNCH UNCH UNCH UNCH 1.4 -1.4
ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd) 200 249 241 241 228 204
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.