MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Aug CPI Seen +0.3%, Core +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in August after 

a 0.2% gain in July. AAA reported a small decline in mid-month prices 

from July, but seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices could see a 

modest gain. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% again following an 

as-expected 0.2% increase in July. 

     Analysts correctly estimated both overall and core CPI in July 

when the percent change is rounded. For August CPI, analysts' misses 

have been mixed in direction, but relatively small, as usual.

                         Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.0     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3

 Range High                 0.1     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.4

 Range Low                 -0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result              -0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

 Median                     0.6     0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.1     0.3

 Range High                 0.9     0.3     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.4

 Range Low                  0.3     0.0    -0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result               0.6     0.1    -0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.4

 Median-Actual              0.0     0.0     0.2     0.0    -0.1    -0.1

                         Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                  0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2

Actual result               0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.0     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result               0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.3     0.2

 Median-Actual              0.1     0.1     0.2     0.0    -0.1     0.0

Change in:

                                    Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)  2.658   2.813   2.915   2.862   2.857

  mo/mo pct change                    #N/A     5.8     3.6    -1.8    -0.2

ISM Mfg Index Price Index             79.3    79.5    76.8    73.2    72.1

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index          61.8    64.3    60.7    63.4    62.8

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]