MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: August ISM Mfg Index Seen At 57.9

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline

further to a reading of 57.9 in August after slipping to 58.1 in July. Regional

conditions data have been mixed. The MNI Chicago PMI data showed mild

deceleration, but remained very strong. The flash Markit estimate fell to 54.5

from 55.3.

     Analysts overestimated the headline ISM index in July following the

underestiamte in July. There have several very large underestimates in recent

August reports, so a surprise to the upside is possible.                        

Forecast:                 Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Median                      59.5    58.4    58.9    58.2    59.5    57.9

Range High                  63.6    59.5    60.0    60.0    59.7    58.0

Range Low                   58.8    58.0    56.8    58.0    58.0    57.0

Actual result               59.3    57.3    58.7    60.2    58.1    #N/A

Median-Actual                0.2     1.1     0.2    -2.0     1.4    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

Median                      49.9    54.5    56.6    52.5    52.0    56.6

Range High                  51.0    55.5    57.5    53.0    53.0    56.0

Range Low                   49.0    53.3    55.8    51.8    51.5    57.5

Actual result               49.6    55.7    59.0    51.1    49.4    58.8

Median-Actual                0.3    -1.2    -2.4     1.4     2.6    -2.2

                          Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

MNI Chicago                 57.4    57.6    62.7    64.1    65.5    63.6

Phila. Fed Index            22.3    23.2    34.4    19.9    25.7    11.9

Empire State Index          22.5    15.8    20.1    25.0    22.6    25.6

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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