MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: December Final Dmd PPI Seen +0.2%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in December

after 0.4% increases in the previous three months. Energy prices are expected to

decline after a 4.6% gasoline-led surge in November, while food prices are

expected to rise further after 0.3% gain. Excluding foodand energy prices, PPI

is forecast to rise 0.2% after an above-expectation 0.3% increase in the

previous month that came despite a decline in trade services prices. Excluding

trade services as well as food and energy, PPI is expected to rise modestly. 

     Analysts again underestimated final demand PPI in November, as energy

prices surged and food prices rose further, offsetting a decline in trade

services prices. The misses in the last 20 November releases have been about

evenly distributed, with four overestimates, four underestimates, and correct

estimates in the most recent two years. For core PPI, which was also

underestimated in November, there is a stronger risk of another underestimate,

with five low misses in the last 10 years. Like overall PPI, there were correct

estimates in the most recent two years.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

Overall PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.3     0.4     0.1     0.3     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.4     0.6     0.3     0.5     0.3

Range Low                            0.0     0.1     0.2     0.0     0.2     0.0

Actual result                       -0.1     0.2     0.4     0.4     0.4    #N/A

vs median forecast                   0.3     0.1     0.0    -0.3    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison             Dec-11  Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16

Median                               0.0    -0.1     0.5    -0.4    -0.2     0.3

Range High                           0.4     0.3     0.8     0.0     0.1     0.5

Range Low                           -0.3    -0.8     0.0    -0.5    -1.2     0.2

Actual result                       -0.1    -0.2     0.4    -0.3    -0.2     0.3

vs median forecast                   0.1     0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0

                                  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

Core PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range Low                            0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1

Actual result                       -0.1     0.1     0.4     0.4     0.3    #N/A

vs median forecast                   0.3     0.1    -0.2    -0.2    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Dec-11  Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16

Median                               0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.2     0.3     0.4     0.3     0.2

Range Low                            0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0

Actual result                        0.3     0.1     0.3     0.3     0.1     0.2

less median forecast                -0.2     0.1    -0.2    -0.2     0.0     0.0

NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward,

forecast data are for Final

Demand PPI and Core

                                          Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index

(% chg)                                     -2.0    -1.7    -5.2     4.2    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   62.0    71.5    68.5    65.5    69.0

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                57.9    66.3    62.7    60.7    60.8

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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