MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: December Industrial Prod Seen +0.5%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise by 

0.5% in December after a 0.2% gain in the previous month. Factory 

payrolls rose by 25,000 in December, while auto production jobs rose by 

1,000. However, the factory workweek was fell to 40.8 hours from 40.9 

hours in November. The ISM production index rose to 65.8 in the current 

month from 63.9 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected 

to remain soft in the month after a 1.9% November decline, though with 

an upside risk since weather was more seasonal. Mining production is 

forecast to rise further after posting a 2.0% surge. Capacity 

utilization is forecast to tick up to 77.3% from 77.1% in November. 

     Analysts slightly overestimated industrial production in November 

as utilities declined on warmer-than-usual weather. Recent December 

misses have been mixed, though there have been overestimates in the most 

recent two years. 

Industrial Production:     Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

Forecast:

 Median                       0.3     0.1     0.2     0.5     0.3     0.5

 High                         0.5     0.5     0.8     1.0     0.8     0.9

 Low                          0.1    -1.3    -0.9     0.3     0.0     0.1

Actual result                 0.2    -0.9     0.3     0.9     0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast           0.1     1.0    -0.1    -0.4     0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Dec-11  Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16

 Median                       0.5     0.2     0.3    -0.1    -0.2     0.9

 High                         0.6     0.6     0.4     0.2     0.2     1.2

 Low                          0.0    -0.1    -0.1    -0.5    -0.6     0.5

Actual result                 0.4     0.3     0.3    -0.1    -0.4     0.8

 vs median forecast           0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.2     0.1

Capacity Utilization:      Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

Forecast:

 Median                      76.7    76.8    76.2    76.3    77.2    77.3

 High                        76.9    77.0    76.6    76.9    77.5    77.3

 Low                         76.6    75.6    75.4    76.2    77.1    77.2

Actual result                76.7    76.1    76.0    77.0    77.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast           0.0     0.7     0.2    -0.7     0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Dec-11  Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16

 Median                      78.0    78.5    79.1    79.9    76.7    75.6

 High                        78.3    78.8    79.3    78.8    77.2    76.1

 Low                         77.8    78.2    78.8    80.0    76.6    75.4

Actual result                78.1    78.8    79.2    79.7    76.5    75.5

 vs median forecast          -0.1    -0.3    -0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1

                           Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

NA-Made Motor Vehicle Sale   12.9    12.3    14.2    13.8    13.3    13.6

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg       0.2     0.1     0.1     0.4     0.2    -0.1

Factory Jobs (000's)          -11      44       9      23      31      25

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)       -27      23      -3      -1       2       1

Mining Jobs (000's)             1       5       4       1       4      -2

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                56.3    58.8    60.8    58.7    58.2    59.7

  ISM Mfg Production         60.6    61.0    62.2    61.0    63.9    65.8

  Phila. Fed Index           23.2    22.1    25.8    28.8    24.3    27.9

  Empire State Index          9.8    25.2    24.4    30.2    19.4    18.0

  Chicago PMI                58.9    58.9    65.2    66.2    63.9    67.6

  Factory Workweek           40.9    40.8    40.8    40.9    40.9    40.8

  Factory Overtime            3.3     3.4     3.3     3.5     3.5     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]