MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: December Payrolls Seen Up 190,000

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in

December after an above-expectation reading in November. The unemployment rate

is expected to stay at 4.1%, still very low by historical standards. Annual

revisions will be release with the December data. Hourly earnings are forecast

to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain, while the average workweek is expected to stay

at 34.5 hours after climbing to that point in November.

     Analysts underestimated payrolls in November after overestimates in the

previous three months. Past data for December show six misses to the high side

and four misses to the low side over the last 10 years, but those four estimates

have occurred in the most recent six years.

Forecast:                     Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

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Median                           181     180      70     315     200     190

Range High                       220     200     125     350     250     210

Range Low                        170     160     -45     200     165     170

Actual original result           209     156     -33     261     228    #N/A

vs med. forecast                 -28      24     103      54     -28    #N/A

Historical comparison:        Dec-11  Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16

Median                           150     150     200     238     210     173

Range High                       200     200     250     300     230     210

Range Low                        110      90     120     175     180     150

Actual original result           200     155      74     252     292     156

vs med. forecast                 -50      -5     126     -14     -82      17

                              Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

ISM Mfg Employment              55.2    59.9    60.3    59.8    59.7    57.0

ISM Nonmfg Employment           53.6    56.2    56.8    57.5    55.3      NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful          33.2    34.4    32.7    36.7    37.5    35.7

Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap       14.5    16.0    14.7    19.6    20.7    20.5

Net change from survey week:

Initial claims (Chg thsnd)         8      -2      28     -37      17       5

4-week mvg avg                    -1      -4      28     -20      -9      -4

Continuing claims                 20     -11     -43     -11      60      -9

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)        UNCH     1.7    -1.7    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)       198     228      96     238     185     250

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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