MNI:US Data Forecast Focus:December Sales Seen +0.5% On Autos

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.5% in December after

a sharp 0.8% increase in November. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle

sales improved overall in December, while AAA reported that gasoline prices

declined in mid-December from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to

rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles after November's 1.0% gain, as electronics

sales were cut back by seasonal adjustment factors. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated retail sales in November, as the auto sales

dip was smaller than expected and ex-auto sales surged. Misses for past December

data have been sharply tilted toward overestimates for both overall retail sales

and sales excluding vehicles, so some payback may be in order for the sharp

November increase. 

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                                  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

Retail Sales forecast:

Median                               0.3     0.1     1.9     0.0     0.3     0.5

Range High                           1.0     0.7     2.7     0.4     0.5     0.7

Range Low                            0.2    -0.3     1.4    -0.3     0.1     0.2

Actual result                        0.6    -0.2     1.6     0.2     0.8    #N/A

vs median forecast:                 -0.3     0.3     0.3    -0.2    -0.5    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Dec-11  Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.0    -0.2    -0.1     0.7

Range High                           0.6     0.8     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.8

Range Low                           -0.2    -1.0    -0.2    -0.5    -1.0     0.2

Actual result                        0.1     0.5     0.2    -0.9    -0.1     0.6

vs median forecast:                  0.1    -0.3    -0.2     0.7     0.0     0.1

                                  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

Median                               0.3     0.5     0.9     0.2     0.7     0.3

Range High                           1.0     0.9     1.9     0.4     0.9     0.6

Range Low                            0.2     0.3     0.7    -0.1     0.3     0.1

Actual result:                       0.5     0.2     1.0     0.1     1.0    #N/A

vs median forecast:                 -0.2     0.3    -0.1     0.1    -0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Dec-11  Dec-12  Dec-13  Dec-14  Dec-15  Dec-16

Median                               0.3     0.2     0.4    -0.1     0.2     0.5

Range High                           0.6     0.5     0.6     0.1     0.4     0.7

Range Low                           -0.2     0.0     0.2    -0.5    -0.4    -0.1

Actual result                       -0.2     0.3     0.7    -1.0    -0.1     0.2

vs median forecast:                  0.5    -0.1    -0.3     0.9     0.3     0.3

                                          Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units,

saar                                         4.0     4.6     4.4     4.3     4.1

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units,

saar                                         8.3     9.6     9.4     9.0     9.5

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)                2.351   2.661   2.485   2.561   2.456

mo/mo pct change                            #N/A    13.2    -6.6     3.1    -4.1

Consumer confidence                        120.4   120.6   126.2   128.6   122.1

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6

mo:*

Automobile                                  12.9    12.1    14.0    13.3    12.9

Home                                         7.3     7.4     6.4     6.5     7.6

Major appliance                             50.5    53.8    48.8    53.4    58.4

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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