MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Feb CPI Seen +0.2%, Core +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in February 

after a gasoline-related dip in January. A rebound in gasoline prices, 

as evidenced by the monthly AAA data, will be a key factor. The core CPI 

is forecast to rise by 0.2% for the fifth straight month. 

     Analysts slightly overestimated overall CPI in January and were 

correct in their estimate of core CPI, with gasoline prices plunging as 

expected. For February CPI, analysts have been very accurate with their 

forecasts, with correct estimates in each of the last five years.

                             Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                         0.2     0.3     0.0    -0.2     0.1     0.2

 Range High                     0.2     0.4     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.3

 Range Low                      0.2     0.2     0.0    -0.2     0.0     0.1

Actual result                   0.1     0.3     0.0    -0.1     0.0     #N/A

 Median-Actual                  0.1     0.0     0.0    -0.1     0.1     #N/A

Historical comparison:       Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17  Feb-18

 Median                         0.6     0.1     0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.2

 Range High                     2.0     0.2     0.3    -0.1     0.2     0.3

 Range Low                      0.0     0.0     0.0    -0.3     0.0     0.1

Actual result                   0.7     0.1     0.2    -0.2     0.1     0.2

 Median-Actual                 -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0

                              Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                         0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                      0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1

Actual result                   0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     #N/A

 Median-Actual                  0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     #N/A

Historical comparison:        Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17  Feb-18

 Median                         0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                      0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                   0.2     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2

 Median-Actual                  0.0     0.0    -0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0

Change in:

                                      Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.911   2.686   2.413   2.232   2.273

  mo/mo pct change                      #N/A   -7.7   -10.2    -7.5     1.8

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              71.6    60.7    54.9    49.6    49.4

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           61.3    64.3    58.0    59.4    54.4

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]