MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: February Payrolls Seen +210,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 210,000 

in February after a stronger-than-expected 200,000 reading in January. 

The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0%. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise only 0.2% after a 0.3% gain in January that reflected  

difficulties with low wage hourly workers getting to work due to weather, 

while the average workweek is expected to rebound to 34.4 hours 

after dipping to 34.3 in January for the same reason.         

     Analysts underestimated payrolls in January and could post another 

low miss in February. Past data for February show misses to the low side 

in each of the last six years. 

Forecast:                  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-17  Feb-17

 Median                        70     315     200     190     185     210

 Range High                   125     350     250     210     230     250

 Range Low                    -45     200     165     170     160     175

Actual original result        -33     261     228     148     200    #N/A

 vs med. forecast             103      54     -28      42     -15    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Feb-12  Feb-13  Feb-14  Feb-15  Feb-16  Feb-17

 Median                       210     160     150     245     195     200

 Range High                   275     225     180     250     240     250

 Range Low                    180     125     115     200     165     165

Actual original result        227     236     175     295     242     235

 vs med. forecast             -17     -76     -25     -50     -47     -35

                           Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-17  Feb-17

ISM Mfg Employment           58.7    59.8    59.2    58.1    54.2    59.7

ISM Nonmfg Employment        56.4    57.0    55.4    56.3    61.6    55.0

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       32.7    36.7    37.5    36.3    37.2    39.4

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   14.7    19.6    20.7    20.3    20.9    24.7

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd     28     -37      17       5     -29       4

  4-week mvg avg               28     -20      -9      -4       8     -18

 Continuing claims            -43     -11      60      -9     -11      -6

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     -1.7    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)     84     161     200     249     244     235

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]