MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January CPI Seen +0.3%,Core +0.2%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.4% in January following a

0.2% rise in December after annual revisions. Analysts expect energy prices to

rebound after December's 0.2% decline, with gasoline prices leading the gain.

AAA reported a slight increase in mid-month prices from December to January. The

core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a revised 0.2% increase in December.

     Analysts correctly estimated CPI for the third month in a row, but but core

CPI was underestimated slightly. Misses in January have been mixed, but only

rarely more than 0.1 percentage point. The exception was a sizable 0.3 percent

point miss in January 2017. Even with that large miss, the data still indicate a

high level of accuracy when forecasting CPI compared with other indicators.

                                  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall CPI Forecast:

Median                               0.3     0.6     0.1     0.4     0.1     0.3

Range High                           0.4     0.7     0.2     0.5     0.2     0.5

Range Low                            0.2     0.5     0.0     0.3     0.0     0.2

Actual result                        0.4     0.5     0.1     0.4     0.1    #N/A

vs median forecast                  -0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

Median                               0.3     0.1     0.1    -0.7     0.0     0.3

Range High                           0.4     0.2     0.2    -0.6     0.1     0.4

Range Low                            0.2     0.1     0.1    -0.9    -0.2     0.2

Actual result                        0.2     0.0     0.1    -0.7    -0.1     0.6

vs median forecast                   0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1    -0.3

                                  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

Core CPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.3

Range Low                            0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1

Actual result                        0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.3    #N/A

vs median forecast                   0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2

Range Low                            0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result                        0.2     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.3

vs median forecast                   0.0    -0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.1    -0.1

Change in:

                                          Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded

($/gal)                                    2.661   2.485   2.561   2.456   2.491

mo/mo pct change                            #N/A    -6.6     3.1    -4.1     1.4

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   71.5    68.5    65.5    69.0    72.7

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                65.9    61.5    60.1    59.9    61.9

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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