MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January Payrolls Seen +167,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) -  Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 

167,000 in January after a much stronger-than-expected 312,000 increase 

in December, leaving the two-month average above 200,000. The private 

payrolls measure is expected to show a 175,000 gain. Now that furloughed 

federal government employees are assured of receiving backpay (the law 

was passed on January 16), the impact on the government jobs category 

will be minimal as BLS will count the sidelined employees as working. 

So, much of the impact from the shutdown will be seen for government 

contractors, not the government employees themselves. 

     The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from 3.9% in the 

previous month. A large impact will be seen from the government workers, 

who will be considered as temporarily laid off for the purposes of 

household employment, cutting the measure of employed and boosting the 

level of unemployed. This will temporarily lift the unemployment rate, 

with a likely reversal in February now that the shutdown has ended. 

     Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.4% gain in the 

previous month, while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 

34.5 hours. Earnings and hours worked for government employees are not 

included in the data, but the impact of the shutdown could still be seen 

for government contractors. Annual revisions to the establishment survey 

will be released with this month's data. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated payrolls growth in December. 

Analysts will likely expect some payback in January, but underestimates 

in the most recent two January reports suggest upside risk to the 

January figures. 

Forecast:                  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

 Median                       195     188     190     190     180     167

 Range High                   230     220     231     220     200     190

 Range Low                    166     163     160     140     166     135

Actual original result        201     134     250     155     312    #N/A

 Median-Actual                 -6      54     -60      35    -132    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18

 Median                       160     185     243     189     175     185

 Range High                   200     250     265     245     220     230

 Range Low                    130     130     175     170     150     160

Actual original result        157     113     257     151     227     200

 Median-Actual                  3      72     -14      38     -52     -15

                           Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

ISM Mfg Employment           57.8    58.2    56.5    57.7    56.0      NA

ISM Nonmfg Employment        56.8    60.4    58.3    58.0    56.6      NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       42.3    44.1    45.4    46.8    45.5    46.6

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   30.2    30.0    32.0    34.2    33.3    33.7

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd      2      -8       8      15      -8      -5

  4-week mvg avg               -7      -8       6       7       4      -2

 Continuing claims            -37     -47     -25      67       3       5

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH    UNCH     2.0     2.1    -4.1    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    162     209     239     148     263     213

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]