MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: July CPI Seen +0.2%, Core +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in July 

after a 0.1% gain in June. The year/year rates should rise further due 

to a soft reading a year ago. AAA reported a modest decline in mid-month 

prices from June, which could soften seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline 

prices. The core CPI is also forecast to rise 0.2% following an 

as-expected 0.2% increase in June. 

     Analysts slightly overestimated both overall and core CPI in June 

when the percent change is unrounded. For July CPI, there is a tendency 

to overestmate, which has happened more frequently than underestimates 

for overall CPI and in each of the last four years for core CPI.

                         Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.3     0.1     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1    -0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result               0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.0     0.2

 Range High                 0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2

 Range Low                  0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1

Actual result               0.0     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1

 Median-Actual              0.2     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1

                         Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2

Actual result               0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.0     0.0     0.1     0.0     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result               0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

 Median-Actual              0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Change in:

                                     Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)   2.523   2.658   2.813   2.915   2.862

  mo/mo pct change                      #N/A    5.4     5.8     3.6    -1.8

ISM Mfg Index Price Index              78.1    79.3    79.5    76.8    73.2

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index           61.5    61.8    64.3    60.7    63.4

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]