MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: July Final Demand PPI Seen +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise by 0.2% in 

July after larger gains in the previous two months. Energy prices are 

expected to slow following a 0.8% June increase and a 4.6% surge in May, 

while food prices are expected to rebound after a 1.1% decline. 

Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after 

0.3% gains in the previous two months. 

     Analysts slightly underestimated final demand PPI in June, owning 

to a strong gain for trade services. This was the fourth low miss in the 

last five months. Forecasts for core PPI were on target, as usual. 

However, the misses in the last ten July reports were mixed, but more 

recently have shown misses to the high side, in some cases drastically, 

so there is a lot of uncertainty about the risks for this month's 

report. 

                          Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

Overall PPI Forecast:

 Median                      0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.4     0.4     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                   0.0     0.0     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1

Actual result                0.2     0.3     0.1     0.5     0.3    #N/A

 Median-Actual              -0.1    -0.2     0.1    -0.3    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison     Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                      0.2     0.3     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2

 Range High                  0.6     0.6     0.4     0.2     0.1     0.3

 Range Low                   0.0     0.1    -0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0

Actual result                0.3     0.0     0.1     0.2    -0.4    -0.1

 Median-Actual              -0.1     0.3     0.1    -0.1     0.5     0.3

                          Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

Core PPI Forecast:

 Median                      0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                   0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Actual result                0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.3    #N/A

 Median-Actual               0.0    -0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                      0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.3     0.3     0.5     0.2     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                   0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1

Actual result                0.4     0.1     0.2     0.3    -0.3    -0.1

 Median-Actual              -0.2     0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.5     0.3

NOTE: From Jan. 2014 forward, forecast data are for Final Demand PPI and Core

                                Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

ISM Mfg Index Price Index         78.1    79.3    79.5    76.8    73.2

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index      61.5    61.8    64.3    60.7    63.4

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]