MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: July ISM Mfg Index Seen At 59.5>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to 

decline to a  reading of 59.5 in July after rising to 60.2 in June. 

Regional conditions data have been mixed, while the Markit flash 

estimate rose modestly to 55.5 from 55.4 in June.        

     Analysts underestimated the headline ISM index in June after 

overestimates in the previous three months. There have been a mix of 

overestimates and underestimates in July in recent years, so there is no 

clear forecast risk.

Forecast:                Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

 Median                    58.9    59.5    58.4    58.9    58.2    59.5

 Range High                59.3    63.6    59.5    60.0    60.0    59.7

 Range Low                 57.7    58.8    58.0    56.8    58.0    58.0

Actual result              60.8    59.3    57.3    58.7    60.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual             -1.9     0.2     1.1     0.2    -2.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                    50.5    52.2    56.0    53.7    53.0    56.3

 Range High                51.5    53.5    57.5    54.2    53.4    57.5

 Range Low                 48.5    51.5    55.0    53.0    52.0    55.0

Actual result              49.8    55.4    57.1    52.7    52.6    56.3

 Median-Actual              0.7    -3.2    -1.1     1.0     0.4     0.0

                         Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

 MNI Chicago               61.9    57.4    57.6    62.7    64.1    65.5

 Phila. Fed Index          25.8    22.3    23.2    34.4    19.9    25.7

 Empire State Index        13.1    22.5    15.8    20.1    25.0    22.6

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]