MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: July Payrolls Seen +190,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 

in July after a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in June. The 

unemployment rate is expected to slip back to 3.9% after rebounding to 

4.0% in June. Hourly earnings are forecast to post another 0.2% gain, 

but the year/year rate could decline on base effects, while the average 

workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for the sixth straight month.         

     Analysts underestimated payrolls in May and June, as well as in 

each of the last two July reports, so another upside surprise is 

possible. 

Forecast:                  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

 Median                       210     195     185     194     195     190

 Range High                   250     250     255     217     212     207

 Range Low                    175     130     145     169     180     182

Actual original result        313     103     164     223     213    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -103      92      21     -29     -18    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                       100     185     230     225     188     181

 Range High                   165     205     255     250     200     220

 Range Low                     75     160     200     200     140     170

Actual original result        163     162     209     215     255     209

 Median-Actual                -63      23      21      10     -67     -28

                           Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

ISM Mfg Employment           59.7    57.3    54.2    56.3    56.0    56.5

ISM Nonmfg Employment        55.0    56.6    53.6    54.1    53.6     NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       39.1    39.5    38.2    42.1    40.4    43.1

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   24.0    23.8    22.7    26.5    25.3    28.1

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd     -8       9       6     -10      -5     -10

  4-week mvg avg              -14      -2       7     -18       8    UNCH

 Continuing claims           UNCH     -46     -43     -92     -35      40

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH     1.4    -1.4    UNCH    UNCH     1.2

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    241     198     170     196     181     219

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]