MNI:US Data Forecast Focus: July Sales Seen +0.1%, Autos Soft>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.1% in 

July after a 0.5% gain in June and a 1.3% jump in May. Not seasonally 

adjusted industry motor vehicle sales slowed a bit in July, while AAA 

reported that gasoline prices halted their sharp gains, falling in 

mid-July from one month earlier, the latter reflected in a decline in 

CPI gasoline prices. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% excluding 

motor vehicles, the same as in June, while analysts see the core 

measures breaking out of the recent trend of solid gains. If the data 

are in line with expectations, it suggests continued sales growth, but 

at a much slower pace than in the second quarter.   

     Analysts slightly overerestimated retail sales growth in June, 

though an underestimate for ex-motor vehicle sales and a strong upward 

revision to May sales offset that slight miss on the headline figure. 

Misses for past July data suggest a risk of an overestimate for 

overall sales, but no clear risk for ex-motor vehicle sales. 

                         Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.4     0.3     0.3     0.4     0.6     0.1

 Range High                 0.5     0.4     0.5     0.6     0.8     0.5

 Range Low                  0.1     0.3     0.2     0.0     0.5    -0.4

Actual result              -0.1     0.6     0.3     0.8     0.5    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.5    -0.3     0.0    -0.4     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.6     0.5     0.3

 Range High                 0.6     0.8     0.4     1.0     0.9     1.0

 Range Low                 -0.2     0.1     0.0     0.4     0.2     0.2

Actual result               0.8     0.2     0.0     0.6     0.0     0.6

 Median-Actual             -0.5     0.1     0.2     0.0     0.5    -0.3

                         Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.5     0.1     0.5     0.5     0.3     0.4

 Range High                 0.7     0.4     0.7     0.6     0.5     0.5

 Range Low                  0.3     0.0     0.4     0.2     0.2     0.0

Actual result:              0.2     0.2     0.3     0.9     0.4    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.3    -0.1     0.2    -0.4    -0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16  Jul-17

 Median                     0.3     0.4     0.4     0.5     0.1     0.3

 Range High                 0.7     1.0     0.5     0.9     0.4     1.0

 Range Low                 -0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.0     0.2

Actual result               0.8     0.5     0.1     0.4    -0.3     0.5

 Median-Actual             -0.5    -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.4    -0.2

                                 Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa    3.2     3.0     3.0     3.1     3.0

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s    7.0     6.9     6.9     7.2     6.9

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include GM

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.523   2.658   2.813   2.915   2.862

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A      5.4     5.8     3.6    -1.8

Consumer confidence               127.0   125.6   128.8   127.1   127.4

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        11.5    12.6    12.1    10.9    11.2

 Home                               6.0     6.9     5.5     6.1     5.1

 Major appliance                   49.5    54.3    50.8    49.7    46.5

--

* Respondents answering "yes"

     --Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]