MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: June Final Demand PPI Seen +0.1%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in June

after a modest 0.1% May increase. Energy prices are expected to fall 

further, while food prices are expected to rise after falling in the previous

two months. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% for a

second straight month.

     Analysts correctly estimated both overall and core PPI in May. Misses in

June have tended to toward underestimates recently, with misses to the low side

in each of the last seven years. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19

Overall PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.1     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.1     0.1

Range High                           0.6     0.3     0.4     0.4     0.3     0.5

Range Low                            0.1    -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.0    -0.1

Actual result                       -0.1     0.1     0.6     0.2     0.1    #N/A

Median-Actual                        0.2     0.1    -0.3     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical Comparison             Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17  Jun-18

Median                               0.5     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.0     0.2

Range High                           0.8     0.7     0.3     0.3     0.1     0.3

Range Low                            0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.2

Actual result                        0.8     0.4     0.4     0.5     0.1     0.3

Median-Actual                       -0.3    -0.1    -0.2    -0.3    -0.1    -0.1

                                  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19

Core PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3

Range Low                            0.2     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result                        0.3     0.1     0.3     0.1     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17  Jun-18

Median                               0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.3

Range High                           0.2     0.7     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.3

Range Low                            0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.2

Actual result                        0.2     0.2     0.3     0.4     0.1     0.3

Median-Actual                       -0.1     0.0    -0.2    -0.3     0.0     0.0

NOTE: From Jan. 2014

forward, forecast data are

for Final Demand PPI and

Core

                                          Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19  May-19  Jun-19

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   49.4    54.3    50.0    53.2    47.9

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                54.4    58.7    55.7    55.4    58.9

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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