MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: March Payrolls Seen +170,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 170,000 

in March after a much weaker-than-expected 20,000 rise in February. The 

unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.8%. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise by 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to 

rebound slightly to 34.5 hours after falling to 34.4 hours in February. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated the extremely soft payrolls growth 

in Febraury. Analysts have missed March payrolls to the high side in six 

of the last seven years, so another disappointment is possible. 

Forecast:                  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19

 Median                       190     190     180     167     183     170

 Range High                   231     220     200     190     220     243

 Range Low                    160     140     166     135     141     145

Actual original result        250     155     312     304      20    #N/A

 Median-Actual                -60      35    -132    -137     163    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17  Mar-18

 Median                       190     198     250     194     175     195

 Range High                   225     275     272     241     210     250

 Range Low                    140     170     195     175     125     130

Actual original result         88     192     126     215      98     103

 Median-Actual                102       6     124     -21      77      92

                           Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19

ISM Mfg Employment           56.5    57.7    56.0    55.5    52.3    57.5

ISM Nonmfg Employment        58.3    58.0    56.6    57.8    55.2    55.9

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       45.4    46.8    45.5    46.7    45.7    42.0

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   32.0    34.2    33.3    34.1    34.0    28.3

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd      3       9      -4      -3      -4       3

  4-week mvg avg                3       7       3      -1       7      -9

 Continuing claims            -26      39       4       8      66     -18

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)      2.0     2.1    -4.1    UNCH    -1.2    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    238     136     249     264     197     129

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]