MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: May Payrolls Seen Up 194,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 194,000 

in May after a weaker-than-expected 164,000 rise in April. The 

unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at the 18-year low of 3.9%. 

Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.1% gain, while the 

average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours for another 

month.  

     Analysts overestimated payrolls in both March and April following 

the surge in February. There has been an even split of overestimates and 

underestimates over the last 10 years, but overestimates in the most 

recent two years to add to the high misses in March and April give a 

slightly greater chance of another disappointing print.   

Forecast:                  Dec-17  Jan-17  Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17

 Median                       190     185     210     195     185     194

 Range High                   210     230     250     250     255     217

 Range Low                    170     160     175     130     145     169

Actual original result        148     200     313     103     164    #N/A

 Median-Actual                 42     -15    -103      92      21    #N/A

Historical comparison:     May-12  May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17

 Median                       150     165     210     210     155     183

 Range High                   225     210     240     275     201     231

 Range Low                     95     125     175     180     110     155

Actual original result         69     175     217     280      38     138

 Median-Actual                 81     -10      -7     -70     117      45

                           Dec-17  Jan-17  Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17

ISM Mfg Employment           58.1    54.2    59.7    57.3    54.2      NA

ISM Nonmfg Employment        56.3    61.6    55.0    56.6    53.6      NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       36.3    37.2    39.1    39.5    38.2    42.4

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   20.3    20.9    24.0    23.8    22.7    26.6

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd      3     -16      -8       9       6     -10

  4-week mvg avg               -4       5     -14      -2       7     -18

 Continuing claims             -9     -14       0     -46     -43     -92

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)     UNCH    UNCH    UNCH     1.4    -1.4    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    249     241     241     198     163     178

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]