MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Nov CPI Seen Flat, Core +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to hold steady in November 

after a 0.3% gain in October. A sharp pull back in gasoline prices, as 

evidenced by the monthly AAA data, will be the key factor. The core CPI 

is forecast to rise 0.2%, the same as in the previous month. 

     Analysts correctly both overall and core CPI in October, with a 

jump in gasoline prices foreseen by analysts. For November CPI, 

analysts' misses have been mixed in direction and small, but as always 

with CPI, correct estimates are far more common the large errors in 

forecasting. 

                         Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.0

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.4     0.2     0.4     0.1

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.0

Actual result               0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.3    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17

 Median                    -0.2     0.1    -0.2     0.0     0.2     0.4

 Range High                 0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.3     0.5

 Range Low                 -0.3     0.0    -0.2     0.0     0.1     0.3

Actual result              -0.3     0.0    -0.3     0.0     0.2     0.4

 Median-Actual              0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0

                         Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.2

 Range Low                  0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Actual result               0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.0     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17

 Median                     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                  0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

Actual result               0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1

 Median-Actual              0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1

Change in:

                                   Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal) 2.862   2.857   2.843   2.911   2.686

  mo/mo pct change                   #N/A    -0.2    -0.5     2.4    -7.7

ISM Mfg Index Price Index            73.2    72.1    66.9    71.6    60.7

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index         63.4    62.8    64.2    61.7    64.3

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]