MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: November Final Dmd PPI Seen +0.3%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in November

after 0.4% increases in the previous two months. Energy prices are expected to

rise after a flat October reading, while food prices are expected to temper a

bit after 0.5% gain. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise

0.2% after an above-expectation 0.4% increase in the previous month that was led

by a 1.1% jump in trade services prices. Excluding trade services as well as

food and energy, PPI is expected to post a modest gain.

     Analysts sharply underestimated final demand PPI in October, as food and

trade services prices surged to offset a flat reading for energy prices. The

misses in the last 10 November releases have been about evenly distributed, with

four overestimates and six underestimates, including the most recent two years.

Likewise for core PPI, which was underestimated in October, and as seen

underestimates in the most recent two November releases. There were four correct

estimates in the last 10 years and only two overestimates, so another upside

surprise is possible.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

Overall PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.0     0.2     0.3     0.4     0.1     0.3

Range High                           0.1     0.3     0.4     0.6     0.3     0.5

Range Low                           -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.2     0.0     0.2

Actual result                        0.1    -0.1     0.2     0.4     0.4    #N/A

vs median forecast                  -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.0    -0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison             Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16

Median                               0.2    -0.5     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.2

Range High                           0.6     0.0     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.3

Range Low                           -0.3    -0.9    -0.2    -0.4    -0.3     0.1

Actual result                        0.3    -0.8    -0.1    -0.2     0.3     0.4

vs median forecast                  -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.1    -0.3    -0.2

                                  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

Core PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2

Range Low                            0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0

Actual result                        0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.4     0.4    #N/A

vs median forecast                   0.0     0.3     0.1    -0.2    -0.2    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16

Median                               0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.4     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range Low                            0.0    -0.2     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1

Actual result                        0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.3     0.4

less median forecast                 0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.2    -0.2

NOTE: From Jan. 2014

forward, forecast data are

for Final Demand PPI and

Core

                                          Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index

(% chg)                                     -2.9    -2.0    -1.7    -5.2    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   62.0    62.0    71.5    68.5    65.5

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                55.7    57.9    66.3    62.7    60.7

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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