MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: November Sales Seen +0.3%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3% in 

November after a modest 0.2% increase in October. Seasonally adjusted 

industry motor vehicle sales slowed in November, but AAA reported that 

gasoline prices rebounded in mid-November from one month earlier. As a 

result, retail sales are expected to surge 0.7% excluding motor vehicles 

after October's 0.1% gain. 

     Analysts underestimated retail sales in October, as auto sales 

posted a small increase rather than an expected decline. Retail sales 

excluding vehicles were slightly overestimated due to sharp declines in 

gasoline sales and building materials sales after their September 

run-up. Misses for past November data have been slightly tilted toward 

underestimates for overall retail sales and mixed for ex-motor vehicle 

sales. 

                         Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.1     0.3     0.1     1.9     0.0     0.3

 Range High                 0.2     1.0     0.7     2.7     0.4     0.5

 Range Low                  0.0     0.2    -0.3     1.4    -0.3     0.1

Actual result              -0.2     0.6    -0.2     1.6     0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.3    -0.3     0.3     0.3    -0.2    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16

 Median                     0.5     0.5     0.6     0.4     0.3     0.4

 Range High                 0.9     1.0     1.1     0.6     0.0     0.5

 Range Low                  0.2    -0.2     0.3     0.0     0.4     0.1

Actual result               0.2     0.3     0.7     0.7     0.2     0.1

 vs median forecast:        0.3     0.2    -0.1    -0.3     0.1     0.3

                         Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.3     0.5     0.9     0.2     0.7

 Range High                 0.3     1.0     0.9     1.9     0.4     0.9

 Range Low                  0.2     0.2     0.3     0.7    -0.1     0.3

Actual result:             -0.2     0.5     0.2     1.0     0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.4    -0.2     0.3    -0.1     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16

 Median                     0.4     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.4

 Range High                 0.6     0.5     0.5     0.3     0.4     0.5

 Range Low                  0.1    -1.0     0.0    -0.2     0.1     0.2

Actual result               0.2     0.0     0.4     0.5     0.4     0.2

 vs median forecast:        0.2     0.0    -0.2    -0.5    -0.1     0.2

                                 Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa    4.2     4.0     4.6     4.4     4.3

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s    8.7     8.3     9.6     9.4     9.0

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.260   2.351   2.661   2.485   2.561

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A      4.0    13.2    -6.6     3.1

Consumer confidence               120.0   120.4   120.6   126.2   129.5

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        13.6    12.9    12.1    14.0    12.6

 Home                               6.7     7.3     7.4     6.4     6.9

 Major appliance                   47.7    50.5    53.8    48.8    52.0

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]