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MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: October ISM Mfg Index Seen 59.0> 

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to dip 
to a still-strong reading of 59.0 in October after falling back to 59.8 
in September. Regional conditions data have suggested continued solid 
growth, though a decline in the MNI Chicago and Richmond manufacturing 
readings are negative factors. The flash Markit manufacturing index rose 
to 55.9 in October from 55.6 in September. 
     Analysts were virtually on target with their forecast for the 
September index. There have been underestimates in five of the last six 
October reports and in seven of the last 10 years, so an upside surprise 
is possible. 
Forecast:               May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18
 Median                   58.9    58.2    59.5    57.9    60.0    59.0
 Range High               60.0    60.0    59.7    58.0    60.5    60.0
 Range Low                56.8    58.0    58.0    57.0    58.0    58.0
Actual result             58.7    60.2    58.1    61.3    59.8    #N/A
 Median-Actual             0.2    -2.0     1.4    -3.4     0.2    #N/A
Historical comparison:  Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17
 Median                   51.4    55.2    56.3    50.0    51.8    59.5
 Range High               52.5    56.4    57.5    51.0    53.0    61.0
 Range Low                50.0    54.0    55.0    49.4    50.6    58.0
Actual result             51.7    56.4    59.0    50.1    51.9    58.7
 Median-Actual            -0.3    -1.2    -2.7    -0.1    -0.1     0.8
                        May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18
 MNI Chicago              62.7    64.1    65.5    63.6    60.4    58.4
 Phila. Fed Index         34.4    19.9    25.7    11.9    22.9    22.2
 Empire State Index       20.1    25.0    22.6    25.6    19.0    21.1
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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