Free Trial

MNI US Employment Insight, Apr'23: Broadly In Line, But Plenty Of Caveats

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Seasonally-adjusted nonfarm payroll gains were about as close to expectations as they get, especially when combined with minimal downward revisions. But the headline figure was again boosted by the public sector plus a potentially favorable seasonal factor.
  • The unemployment rate surprisingly fell back to 3.50% for close to multi-decade lows but participation again improved and both AHE growth and weekly hours worked broadly continued their downtrend.
  • Increased labor supply should be welcomed by the Fed, but the still-solid jobs data against a recent backdrop of weaker market indicators saw a 5bp increase to 17bp priced for the May FOMC meeting and a year-end rate of circa 4.35% (going back to pre-JOLTS levels). CPI on Apr 12 will be the key determinant.


PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USEmploymentReportApr2023.pdf

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.