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MNI US Employment Insight, Aug'23: Still Cooling, But Still Tight

Markets
  • Nonfarm payrolls growth undershot expectations for the second month running in July and also saw further downward revisions, continuing the trend moderation.
  • Another stronger than expected AHE print was offset by softer than expected hours worked.
  • The household survey offered a hawkish take with the unemployment rate falling back and looking increasingly at odds with FOMC forecasts even if participation rate implications were more nuanced.
  • Near-term FOMC expectations were relatively steady with the November terminal falling 2bps and since mostly reversed after weekend Bowman comments, but cut expectations increased notably. CPI lands on Thursday (Aug 10) with another round of payrolls and CPI reports still to come before the September FOMC.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USEmploymentReportAug2023.pdf

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