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MNI US Employment Insight, Jun '24: A Tale Of Two Surveys

US LABOR MARKET
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We've just published our review of the May nonfarm payrolls report, including 23 sell side analysts' takes on the data. PDF HERE
  • Nonfarm payrolls not only bounced back in May from a softer April, but exceeded even the highest expectations seen in MNI’s survey of analyst previews with gains of 272k (vs 180k expected).
  • A very weak Household survey which conversely saw job losses of 408k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly tick up to 4.0% cast some doubt over the strength implied by the report.
  • But the overall take was that the labor market was solid in May, given broad-based strength in the headline payrolls figure across the private sector and the acceleration in wage growth.
  • The immediate implication of this report is to eliminate any lingering potential for a first Fed rate cut in July, with a couple of analysts pushing back their expectations to later in 2024.


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We've just published our review of the May nonfarm payrolls report, including 23 sell side analysts' takes on the data. PDF HERE
  • Nonfarm payrolls not only bounced back in May from a softer April, but exceeded even the highest expectations seen in MNI’s survey of analyst previews with gains of 272k (vs 180k expected).
  • A very weak Household survey which conversely saw job losses of 408k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly tick up to 4.0% cast some doubt over the strength implied by the report.
  • But the overall take was that the labor market was solid in May, given broad-based strength in the headline payrolls figure across the private sector and the acceleration in wage growth.
  • The immediate implication of this report is to eliminate any lingering potential for a first Fed rate cut in July, with a couple of analysts pushing back their expectations to later in 2024.